|
Headlines |
Dec-18 |
Nov-18 |
|
Monthly Index* |
425.7 |
428.8 |
|
Monthly Change* |
-0.7% |
0.4% |
|
Annual Change |
0.5% |
1.9% |
|
Average Price (not seasonally adjusted) |
£212,281 |
£214,044 |
* Seasonally adjusted figure (note that monthly % changes are revised when seasonal adjustment factors are re-estimated)
Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:
“UK house price growth slowed noticeably as 2018 drew to a close, with prices just 0.5% higher than December 2017.
“This marks a noticeable slowdown from previous months, where prices had been rising at a c2% pace. However, it is broadly in line with our expectations (since the start of the year we had been anticipating a price rise of c1% in 2018).
“Indicators of housing market activity, such as the number of property transactions and the number of mortgages approved for house purchases, have remained broadly stable in recent months, but forward-looking indicators had suggested some softening was likely.
“In particular, measures of consumer confidence weakened in December and surveyors reported a further fall in new buyer enquiries towards the end of the year. While the number of properties coming onto the market also slowed, this doesn’t appear to have been enough to prevent a modest shift in the balance of demand and supply in favour of buyers.
Uncertainty exerting a drag on the market
“It is likely that the recent slowdown is attributable to the impact of the uncertain economic outlook on buyer sentiment, given that it has occurred against a backdrop of solid employment growth, stronger wage growth and continued low borrowing costs.
“Near term prospects will be heavily dependent on how quickly this uncertainty lifts, but ultimately the outlook for the housing market and house prices will be determined by the performance of the wider economy – especially the labour market.
“The economic outlook is unusually uncertain. However, if the economy continues to grow at a modest pace, with the unemployment rate and borrowing costs remaining close to current levels, we would expect UK house prices to rise at a low single-digit pace in 2019.
Mixed picture across the regions
“Amongst the home nations Northern Ireland recorded the strongest growth in 2018, with prices up 5.8%, though Wales also recorded a respectable 4% gain. By contrast, Scotland saw a more modest 0.9% increase, while England saw the smallest rise of just 0.7% over the year.
“One of the more prominent regional trends in 2018 was the further narrowing of the north-south house price divide in England. Price growth in the south (London, Outer Metropolitan, Outer South East, East Anglia, South West) moderated throughout the year, while in the northern regions (the North, North West, East and West Midlands, and Yorkshire & Humberside), price growth remained broadly stable in the 3% to 4% range.
“This trend was not entirely unexpected, however, as it followed several years of sustained outperformance by the south (especially London and Outer Metropolitan) which left affordability more stretched in these areas.
“Indeed, even though house prices have been rising more quickly in the north of England since Q2 2017, price levels are still significantly higher in the south. The price of a typical home in the south of England (£329,240) is still almost double that in the north (£166,642).”
Monthly UK House Price Statistics
|
Monthly % Change Seasonally Adjusted |
3 Month on 3 Month % Change |
Annual % Change |
Average Price |
|
|
Dec-16 |
0.6 |
0.7 |
4.5 |
205,898 |
|
Jan-17 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
4.3 |
205,240 |
|
Feb-17 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
4.5 |
205,846 |
|
Mar-17 |
-0.1 |
0.9 |
3.5 |
207,308 |
|
Apr-17 |
-0.4 |
0.6 |
2.6 |
207,699 |
|
May-17 |
-0.1 |
0.1 |
2.1 |
208,711 |
|
Jun-17 |
0.9 |
0.0 |
3.1 |
211,301 |
|
Jul-17 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
2.9 |
211,671 |
|
Aug-17 |
-0.1 |
0.8 |
2.1 |
210,495 |
|
Sep-17 |
0.4 |
0.8 |
2.3 |
210,801 |
|
Oct-17 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
2.5 |
211,085 |
|
Nov-17 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
2.5 |
209,988 |
|
Dec-17 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
2.6 |
211,156 |
|
Jan-18 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
3.2 |
211,756 |
|
Feb-18 |
-0.4 |
1.1 |
2.2 |
210,402 |
|
Mar-18 |
-0.2 |
0.8 |
2.1 |
211,625 |
|
Apr-18 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
2.6 |
213,000 |
|
May-18 |
-0.2 |
-0.2 |
2.4 |
213,618 |
|
Jun-18 |
0.5 |
-0.1 |
2.0 |
215,444 |
|
Jul-18 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
2.5 |
217,010 |
|
Aug-18 |
-0.5 |
0.6 |
2.0 |
214,745 |
|
Sep-18 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
2.0 |
214,922 |
|
Oct-18 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
1.6 |
214,534 |
|
Nov-18 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
1.9 |
214,044 |
|
Dec-18 |
-0.7 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
212,281 |
Quarterly Regional House Price Statistics
Please note that these figures are for the three months to December, therefore will show a different UK average price and annual percentage change to our monthly house price statistics.
Regions over the last 12 months
|
Region |
Average Price (Q4 2018) |
Annual % change this quarter |
Annual % change last quarter |
|
N Ireland |
£139,599 |
5.8% |
4.3% |
|
East Midlands |
£184,283 |
4.0% |
4.8% |
|
Wales |
£156,891 |
4.0% |
3.3% |
|
Yorks & H’side |
£157,436 |
3.7% |
5.8% |
|
West Midlands |
£188,163 |
2.9% |
4.1% |
|
North West |
£160,984 |
2.2% |
4.1% |
|
South West |
£244,304 |
2.0% |
1.9% |
|
East Anglia |
£228,014 |
2.0% |
3.0% |
|
North |
£125,813 |
1.0% |
-1.7% |
|
Scotland |
£147,856 |
0.9% |
2.1% |
|
Outer SE |
£277,117 |
0.0% |
0.8% |
|
London |
£466,988 |
-0.8% |
-0.7% |
|
Outer Met |
£356,531 |
-1.4% |
-0.3% |
|
UK |
£214,178 |
1.3% |
2.1% |
Northern Ireland top performing region
Regional house price performance was slightly more varied over 2018 compared with 2017, although outside of London and the South East all regions continued to see annual price growth.
Northern Ireland saw a noticeable pick up in price growth and was the top performing region over the year, with a 5.8% increase.
Wales also outperformed the UK average with prices up 4% over 2018 (compared with a 3.3% increase in 2017). Meanwhile, price growth in Scotland remained relatively subdued, with a 0.9% year-on-year rise.
The Outer Metropolitan was the weakest performing region, with prices down 1.4% over the year. London also continued to see modest price falls, with prices declining 0.8% during 2018 (the sixth quarter in a row in which the capital has recorded an annual house price decline).
England: Softer price growth in South
|
England (Q4 2018) |
|
|
Average house price |
£257,938 |
|
Annual percentage change |
0.7% |
|
Quarterly change* |
-0.1% |
|
Most expensive region |
London |
|
Least expensive region |
North |
|
Strongest annual price change |
East Midlands |
|
Weakest annual price change |
Outer Metropolitan |
* Seasonally adjusted
Average house prices in England fell by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, with prices up 0.7% over the year as a whole.
For the second year running, price growth in northern England exceeded that in southern England. While most regions saw a softening in price growth this quarter, overall prices in northern England were up 3% year on year.
Meanwhile, in southern England both London and the Outer Metropolitan regions continued to see prices decline year on year, leading to a slight overall decline in the south of 0.2%.
However, looking at price levels relative to 2007 peaks, there is a still a significant divide. In Yorkshire & Humberside, the North West and North prices are still close to 2007 levels, while in London they are more than 50% higher.
UK Fact File (Q4 2018) |
|
|
Quarterly average UK house price |
£214,178 |
|
Annual percentage change |
1.3% |
|
Quarterly change* |
0.0% |
|
Most expensive region |
London |
|
Least expensive region |
North |
|
Strongest annual price change |
Northern Ireland |
|
Weakest annual price change |
Outer Metropolitan |
* Seasonally adjusted
Nations – annual & quarterly price change
|
Nation |
Average Price (Q4 2018) |
Annual % change this quarter |
Quarterly % change* |
|
N Ireland |
£139,599 |
5.8% |
1.1% |
|
Wales |
£156,891 |
4.0% |
1.8% |
|
Scotland |
£147,856 |
0.9% |
-0.3% |
|
England |
£257,938 |
0.7% |
-0.1% |
* Seasonally adjusted
