Annual house price growth returns to positive territory for first time in over a year in February

* Seasonally adjusted figure (note that monthly % changes are revised when seasonal adjustment factors are re-estimated)

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said:

“UK house prices rose by 0.7% in February, after taking account of seasonal effects. This resulted in an improvement in the annual rate of house price growth to 1.2% in February, from -0.2% the previous month. House prices are now around 3% below the all-time highs recorded in the summer of 2022, after taking account of seasonal effects.

Signs of easing in affordability pressures

“The decline in borrowing costs around the turn of the year appears to have prompted an uptick in the housing market. Indeed, industry data sources point to a noticeable increase in mortgage applications at the start of the year, while surveyors also reported a rise in new buyer enquiries.

“Nevertheless, near-term prospects remain highly uncertain, in part due to ongoing uncertainty about the future path of interest rates.  After falling sharply in late December, swap rates, which underpin fixed rate mortgage pricing, have drifted back up (see chart).

“Borrowing costs remain well below the highs recorded last summer but, if the recent upward trend is sustained, it threatens to restrain the pace of any housing market recovery.

“While the squeeze on household budgets is easing, with wage growth now outstripping inflation by a healthy margin, it will take time to make up for the ground lost over the past few years, especially given consumer confidence remains fragile.”

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